Will High Oil Prices Kill Demand? Why JPMorgan Says Book Your Travel Now
3/22/202633 min
In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-hosts Telis Demos and Miriam Gottfried analyze the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to hold rates steady—and the surprising shift in market expectations toward a potential hike. They break down Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s take on the Misery Index and whether stagflation is truly returning this year. The hosts also discuss what to watch for at the upcoming CERAWeek energy conference.
After the break, Miriam and Telis are joined by Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan. Kaneva explains the math...
Clips
Transcript preview
First 90 secondsSpeaker 10:00
Access to affordable credit helps me pay my employees, but I don't really need it.
Speaker 20:04
[whistles] Inflation is killing me. [laughs] But who cares? Big retailers are making record profits. That's why we support the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill.
Speaker 10:14
See, banks and credit unions help small businesses make payroll. This bill would cut the vital resources they need.
Speaker 20:20
While increasing mega store profits. They deserve it, don't they?
Telis Demos· Host0:25
[laughs] Tell Congress, stop the Durbin-Marshall Money Grab for Corporate Megastores. Paid for by the Electronic Payments Coalition. [upbeat music] Hi, Miriam.
Miriam Gottfried· Host0:34
Hi, Talis.
Telis Demos· Host0:35
Well, we had a Federal Reserve meeting this past week, and the result was, as expected, nothing. [laughs] [laughs] The Federal Reserve did nothing. It stayed on hold. It did not cut rates. Following the meeting was sort of the news, and that was that the market's expectations of cuts this year ratcheted back even further.
Miriam Gottfried· Host0:53
Now there are no expectations for cuts this year, basically.
Telis Demos· Host0:57
But get this, uh, the CME's FedWatch tool, which uses futures pricing, is now actually, uh, for, for the near future, uh, putting a slightly higher likelihood on a hike rather than a cut.
Miriam Gottfried· Host1:08
Wow.
Telis Demos· Host1:08
I mean, it's low. It's, like, 6% chance of a hike and 3% of a cut or something.
Miriam Gottfried· Host1:12
But that's a real reversal based on what people were thinking at the beginning of this year.
Telis Demos· Host1:15
Hike would've been unthinkable- Yeah ... uh, in the market size a couple of- Especially with- ... couple of months ago ...
Miriam Gottfried· Host1:19
uh, the presumed n- Fed chair coming in, Kevin Warsh, who is expected t- by Tr- President Trump to cut rates. So that will be an interesting dynamic to see. But one