Why We Cling to Certainty, Conspiracies, and Bad Predictions
5/19/20261 hr 2 min
We like to think the future can be figured out if we just gather enough information. Pick the right expert, read the right forecast, find the right framework, and the fog will lift.
Simone Stolzoff argues that this impulse often works against us. In his new book How to Not Know, he makes the case for getting better at uncertainty—not as a slogan, and not as an excuse to believe nothing, but as a practical skill: knowing when to act without perfect information, when to distrust easy answers, when to revise your beliefs, and when uncertainty might point toward something worth discovering.
The conversation covers why people cling to conspiracy theories, what cults offer that ordinary life does not, why experts are so bad at predicting the future, how the replication crisis changed psychology, what relationships teach us about irreversible choices, and why the unknown is not only frightening, but also where possibility begins.
Simone Stolzoff is a San Francisco–based journalist and author. His work has appeared in The New York Times, The Atlantic, and on the TED stage. He is a graduate of Stanford University and the University of Pennsylvania. His debut book, The Good Enough Job, has been translated into more than a dozen languages. His new book is How to Not Know: The Value of Uncertainty in a World That Demands Answers.
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Simone Stolzoff· Guest0:59
Yeah, one of my favorite studies that I quote in the book, the researchers gave participants either a 50% chance of receiving a very painful electric shock or an 100% chance of receiving a painful electric shock. And what they found is those with a 50% chance were far more anxious and stressed than those with 100% chance. We would somehow rather be certain that a bad thing is going to happen to us than have to grapple with the uncertainty of not knowing.
Michael Shermer· Host1:25
What do you mean by uncertainty?
Simone Stolzoff· Guest1:26
The definition I like best comes from these two psychologists