Why Trump’s peace deal is GREAT for Iran
6/18/202637 min
A $300bn plan to rebuild Iran. A ceasefire in the Middle East. And a new test for Donald Trump. But can this peace plan really work, and who is paying for it?
In this episode of The Fourcast: Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban examine the signals analysts are watching most closely after the Iran war - from the future of Iran’s economy and nuclear programme, to whether Israel will accept a new regional reality.
They’re joined by Channel 4 News Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi to ask: who pays for Iran’s reconstruction? Can sanctions be lifted? What happens to the Gulf states? And does this mark a new balance of power in the Middle East?
Clips
Transcript preview
First 90 secondsMark Urban· Host0:00
This is 300 billion. I mean- I mean, it's extraordinary ... that's a hell of a headline figure, isn't it?
Helia Ebrahimi· Guest0:03
It's extraordinary.
Mark Urban· Host0:04
Massive figure.
Helia Ebrahimi· Guest0:05
It's the entire Iranian GDP, so it's an extraordinary amount of money. And, uh, the question is how will he do this?
Mark Urban· Host0:12
You can't give something you don't own. So how can Trump be making promises?
Helia Ebrahimi· Guest0:16
President Trump has tried to bomb his way into victory, and now he's trying to bribe his way.
Matt Frei· Host0:23
This is the bonkers Donald in Wonderland reality of this deal. They've achieved none of the things they set out to achieve. The one thing that they had to achieve was opening the strait, and it's the one thing they didn't need to achieve because it was open before the war even began. [Instrumental music] Hello, and welcome to The Forecast Indicators. I'm Matt Frei.
Mark Urban· Host0:43
And I'm Mark Urban, and this is the podcast where we look at the signals that analysts watch for most closely, the telltale signs that suggest imminent and significant change may be coming.
Matt Frei· Host0:54
And today, peace or something like peace in the Middle East. Donald Trump and Iran's Masoud Pezeshkian have signed an initial deal to end the Iran war. The deal includes a $300 billion plan for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the termination of military operations on all fronts, and that includes Lebanon.
Mark Urban· Host1:17
But how feasible is this plan? Can Trump stop Israel and Hezbollah from continuing their war in Lebanon, a country the south of which Israel now partly