Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets

Speaker 00:00

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Daniel Bach· Host0:29

[upbeat music] President Trump announces a new plan for opening the Strait of Hormuz, but traders seem unconvinced. Plus, GameStop makes a massive play for e-commerce giant eBay. And the Journal reveals why most prediction market bets end in a loss.

Neil Mehta· Guest0:48

Kalshi and Polymarket have pitched themselves as this every man's platform where anyone can monetize their beliefs and win, but what they don't mention is that you'll probably lose.

Daniel Bach· Host0:58

It's Monday, May 4th. I'm Daniel Bock for the Wall Street Journal, filling in for Luke Vargas, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today. [upbeat music] President Trump has said the US would begin guiding commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz today in an effort to unblock the waterway. But critics point to how the plan doesn't involve naval escorts. Instead, Project Freedom allows for countries, insurance companies, and