Ukraine Is Breaking Russia’s War Machine | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS
6/29/202657 min
This week we break down the collapse of the Iran ceasefire talks, the escalating tit-for-tat strikes between Tehran and Washington, the fight over the Strait of Hormuz, and why the current MOU may be far more fragile than it appears. We also dive into the war in Ukraine, Russia's growing military and economic problems, the future of NATO support, and what these developments could mean for the broader geopolitical landscape
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"Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio
00:00 — Start
01:13 — Iran-U.S. Strikes and the Ceasefire Falling Apart
02:43 — Israel-Lebanon Deal and Hezbollah’s Role
03:58 — CENTCOM’s Alternate Route Through Hormuz
05:20 — Why the U.S. Should Stop Giving Iran Financial Incentives
07:58 — Could an International Coalition Reopen the Strait?
09:06 — Why Any Iran Deal May Be Built on Shaky Ground
12:46 — A UN-Backed Hormuz Coalition?
17:33 — Oil Prices, Futures Markets, and the Real Risk Still Ahead
21:01 — Would the U.S. Really Pull Forces Away From Iran?
24:05 — The MOU’s Impossible Terms
25:51 — Why Public Negotiations Make the Deal Harder
27:43 — Trump’s Rhetoric and the Iran Negotiation Dynamic
32:20 — The Broken NSC Process and Bad Foreign Policy Planning
36:57 — Ukraine Starts Hitting Deeper Inside Russia
38:22 — Russia’s Meat Grinder Is Running Out of Meat
43:04 — Poland, the Baltics, and Russia’s Influence Operations
47:22 — Russia’s Fuel Shortages and Ukraine’s Oil Infrastructure Campaign
49:26 — General Donahue Pushed Out of Europe
52:35 — Final Thoughts and Closing Plugs
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsDee· Host0:00
Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. I'm here with Jonathan Hackett, Mick Mulroy. We might be joined by Andy Milburn, fingers crossed. Um, per usual, a lot happening, dizzying as ever. We left off ye- last week, uh, Vance and Kushner and Witkoff were gonna meet in Switzerland with the Iranian delegation to supposedly hammer out, uh, what comes next during the 60-day ceasefire. Obviously, that's not exactly happening. Over the last week, there's been... The Iranians hit a couple of, uh, commercial ships with some drones. We knocked down a drone out of the, the sky, and then we s- and then, uh, we hit areas in southern Iran. Iran then shot... I might, I might be getting the timeline wrong, but, like, Iran shot drones and ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain, so it very much doesn't seem like there is a ceasefire anymore. Israel and Lebanon made a deal. Uh, I don't know if Hezbollah is exactly game for this deal. Doesn't sound like it. Um, so there's a lot to be, a lot to be said. I mean, where are you guys tracking? What are you guys looking at? Uh, Hackett, you can go first.
Jonathan Hackett· Guest1:10
Well, it seems that the strikes back and forth between Iran and the United States are different than they were, obviously, during the war, which was, you know, kind of an unrestrained military operation at that time, and now it's more tit for tat, which is actually very similar to what it looked like back in 2019, 2020, around the Qasem Soleimani strike, if people remember that time period.