The U.S. Can't Back Down: The Strait of Hormuz Closure Is Messier Than You Think with Michael Every
6/12/20261 hr 25 min
This episode was recorded Tuesday, June 9th, before the current 'deal' was floated. Given world events, we decided to post this episode immediately as a special release, and deal or not, this conversation is an excellent overview of the issues and stakes of this evolving situation.
In a media environment constantly contradicting itself, with every side proclaiming the advantage for themselves, the reality of what's happening in the Middle East gets lost amidst the day-to-day headlines. But for analysts who have been monitoring the underlying trends of the geopolitical gameboard for years, the direction is clear: the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz will likely not fully resolve within the next few months. If we truly accept the consequences of this, how will our global economy – built on interconnected supply chains and cheap energy – adapt to a geopolitical order fracturing before our eyes?
In this episode, Nate is joined by Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank, for an unflinching analysis of the Hormuz crisis and the fundamental principles pointing toward the Strait's closure for several more months. Michael walks through multiple scenarios – a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), NATO military action, Chinese intervention behind the scenes – and explains why none of them offer an easy exit. The conversation expands to explore what this crisis means for the future of global energy trade, the emergence of rival production blocs, the collapse of demand-side macroeconomics, and the surprising potential for a more equitable world to emerge from the chaos.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or mostly closed into September, which countries hit their breaking point first, and will the order in which they break fundamentally change the balance of geopolitical power? How does everyday life change when price signals stop working and access is defined by availability rather than cost? And if this crisis truly accelerates the fracturing of our hyper-connected, globalized world into polarized blocs of energy and production, how might the disruption, for better or worse, shake up nearly a century of the macroeconomic theory that has shaped every part of our lives?
(Conversation recorded on June 9th, 2026)
About Michael Every:
Michael Every is a Global Strategist at Rabobank with over two decades of experience. He analyzes major financial developments and contributes to the bank's various economic research publications.
Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsMichael Every· Guest0:00
What we continually see is deeply conflicting information. You can't just follow the headline and say, "Well, this is what's happening." You have to start understanding some of the dynamics that lie behind all of it. That is really the core to doing the best you can do towards predicting where this ends up. I'm gonna make that call that Hormuz is not gonna be reopening for months. When I share it with people, they generally think I'm just telling them it's the end of the world. Well, it's the end of the world as they knew it, but I don't think it means like a crippling belt-tightening where suddenly we don't live well. I think it means we live differently, but perhaps better.
Nate Hagens· Host0:36
You're listening to The Great Simplification. I'm Nate Hagens. On this show, we describe how energy, the economy, the environment, and human behavior all fit together and what it might mean for our future. By sharing insights from global thinkers, we hope to inform and inspire more humans to play emergent roles in the coming Great Simplification. Today, I'm pleased to welcome back global financial analyst Michael Every to discuss with me the current state of the global game of power involving the Strait of Hormuz and a wide boundary analysis on which paths forward and which ultimate winners, if any, are most likely, given the extremely high stakes of this situation. Michael Every is global strategist at Rabobank.