The Iran War Is Ending. Everybody Lost.
6/23/202657 min
Four months ago, the U.S. and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran. Supporters predicted a decisive victory that would curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions and reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. Instead, the war became a costly stalemate. Iran's power continued, the conflict dragged on, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global energy markets, sending economic shockwaves around the world.
Now, a ceasefire has ended the fighting. But critics argue that the agreement gives Iran major concessions in exchange for empty promises about its nuclear program that prove difficult to enforce.
Today, Karim Sadjadpour returns to the podcast to examine the end of the Iran war. Why did the Trump administration agree to this deal, and will history remember it as a necessary compromise or a strategic failure?
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Host: Derek Thompson
Guest: Karim Sadjadpour
Producer: Devon Baroldi
Additional Production Support: Ben Glicksman
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsDerek Thompson· Host0:00
[drum music] Today, the end of the war in Iran and why everybody lost. At the end of February, the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, striking hundreds of military targets, killing thousands of members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, and assassinating Supreme Leader Khamenei. Cyber attacks produced a near total internet blackout across the country. This was, the president's defenders claimed, a clear and unalloyed success, the latest display of a decapitation strategy that had already included Trump's kidnapping of the Venezuelan president. If all went well, some commentators said, we were looking at a new paradigm for the extension of American power. But it hasn't worked out that way. First, the Revolutionary Guard kept elevating new leaders, like some giant bottomless theocratic Pez dispenser. Second, Iran struck back, and the war became a quagmire, and the stated purpose of the war became a moving target. Trump said the strikes were about regime change. Marco Rubio said the attack was mostly about getting ahead of an expected Iranian retaliation to an Israeli strike, which made it sound weirdly like the US had been dragged into this war by Israel. Other officials said, "No, no, this is about reducing Iran's regional power. No, it's about stopping Iran from building a nuclear weapon. No, it's actually about seizing natural resources." By June, the US had achieved none of that. Much worse,