Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback
5/21/202652 min
Prediction market sites allow users to put money on everything from the war in Iran to the winner of the Super Bowl. But where did these markets come from? And what can that history tell us about where they might be going? Today on the show, how betting on popes and presidents long ago planted a seed for a “terrorism market” in the early 2000s, and how those early prediction markets shaped the industry that has taken hold today.
Guests:
Koleman Strumpf, economics professor at Wake Forest University
Paul Rhode, economic historian at the University of Michigan.
Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and systems architect for the Policy Analysis Market
Robert Forsythe, Professor of Finance at Wayne State University and co-founder of the Iowa Political Stock Market
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Rund Abdelfatah· Host0:23
Hey, everyone. Before we get into this week's episode, I wanna share that Ramtin is no longer with the show. I'm thankful for all his hard work and dedication over the years, from creating the show with me to his contributions to countless episodes since. His storytelling, creative vision, and music were invaluable. Throughline will be continuing, and I will still be your host. The team and I will be making the show you know with the same care and curiosity. Thank you for listening. Your support means so much. And now, on to the show.
Speaker 3· Soundbite1:01
[pensive music] $400,000.
Speaker 4· Soundbite1:06
Hundreds of thousands.
Speaker 5· Soundbite1:07
Half a million dollars.
Speaker 3· Soundbite1:08
$400,000 in profits.
Rund Abdelfatah· Host1:10
Half a million dollars. That's how much money someone made a couple months ago on a risky bet.
Speaker 6· Soundbite1:17
Will the US strike Iran by Saturday, February 28th, 2026?
Rund Abdelfatah· Host1:23
The answer, of course, was yes.
Speaker 5· Soundbite1:26
[bomb exploding] The United States and Israel are carrying out major attacks against