Predicting the News
4/22/202618 min
Micah Loewinger speaks with Judd Legum, the author of the accountability newsletter Popular Information, about the explosive rise of prediction markets, and the implications of their growing partnerships with newsrooms.
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsMicah Loewinger· Host0:00
Hey, you're listening to the On The Media midweek podcast. I'm Micah Loewinger. There's been a flurry of activity surrounding the business of prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket, sites that claim to be more like the stock market than traditional betting since you're wagering against other people rather than the house. Recent headlines have been filled with stories of people betting on when the Iran war would end, where the bombs would drop, and when that US airman would be rescued, with some suspiciously well-timed bets making some users a ton of cash, all of which has lawmakers clutching their pearls. Last week, at a congressional hearing on the subject, Rostin Behnam, the current chair of the CFTC, the Commodities Future Trading Commission, tried to reassure members of both parties that his agency was investigating allegations of insider trading. But as John Oliver reported on his show this weekend...
John Oliver· Soundbite0:59
And while Selig's recently made noises about stronger enforcement, it is hard to take him at his word, given that during his confirmation hearings, he told Congress he'd let courts decide whether these companies constitute gambling. But in office, he's done the exact opposite of that. In fact, more than a dozen states are currently suing prediction markets, but rather than let that play out in the courts, like he promised, Selig posted this video.
Judd Legum· Guest1:23
To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear.