Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028
6/29/20261 hr 1 min
(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod!
(10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India
(25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base
(34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems
(45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed
(50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard
(55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsNate Silver· Guest0:00
Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the US, right? Like, my job, don't worry, I will get criticized if, if we say, "Oh, whatever, Gavin Newsom or AOC is a 55% favorite," and they lose. But, like, but 43 of the 50 states stated we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028, and it's not because of rigging, it's because polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to, to escape from.
David Sacks· Host0:31
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Jason Calacanis· Host0:33
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David Sacks· Host1:07
[singing] I'm going all in.
Jason Calacanis· Host1:09
All right, everybody, welcome back to the All In interview program. We are delighted today to have the one, the only, Nate Silver on the program. Gambler, statistician, podcaster, Substacker. Go subscribe right now for a hundy, quick hundy at Silver Bulletin over at Substack. It's a