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James Bosworth on the "Orange Wave" Happening Across Latin America

4/24/202650 min

We're living in an extraordinary moment for Latin American politics. From the ousting of Maduro to the ongoing oil blockade of Cuba to Javier Milei revving up a chainsaw at CPAC. Various leaders in different countries are taking different approaches to their relationship with the US. Each is aware that there is a high value in being close to Trump, but also each know that Trump won't be the US President forever. So how should we understand the different approaches being taken? Today we talk to James Bosworth, who is the the founder of Hxagon, a company that does political risk analysis and research primarily in Latin America. He is also the author the Latin America Risk Report newsletter. Our conversation with Bos covered what he calls the "orange shift," a region-wide realignment towards dealmaking with the Trump administration. We discuss how Latin American leaders are dealing with inflation, why Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum and El Salvador's Nayib Bukele are so popular, how Brazil's Lula has surprised economic observers, and whether Trump will be able to find a "Delcy" elsewhere in the region.

Read more:
Brazil Oil Driller Expanding in Venezuela as US Eases Sanctions
Mexico Inflation Slows Slightly, Keeping Another Rate Cut in Play

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Clips

U.S. Routing Venezuela’s Oil
Delcy’s Pragmatic Power Deal
Bukele’s Bargain And Crackdown
Cuba’s Coming Deal Odds
Democracy Or Power Consolidation?
No Doctrine, Just Deals
When Tariffs Hit PIX
Milei’s Inflation Curve Grade

Transcript preview

First 90 seconds

  1. James Bosworth· Guest0:01

    [intro music] Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, Radio, News.

  2. Joe Weisenthal· Host0:07

    [intro music] Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

  3. Tracy Alloway· Co-host0:23

    And I'm Tracy Alloway.

  4. Joe Weisenthal· Host0:24

    Tracy, we're recording this April 7th, 10:30 in the morning. Of course, by the time this comes out, we have no idea what will be going on with the war in Iran. But one reason we may be in the war in Iran in the first place is because of, frankly, how smooth the operation went to remove Maduro and Trump found a sort of political partner he can work with in the form of, uh, Delcy Rodriguez in Venezuela.

  5. Tracy Alloway· Co-host0:53

    Yes. He seemed to enjoy getting access to a lot of oil from Venezuela.

  6. Joe Weisenthal· Host0:58

    Yes.

  7. Tracy Alloway· Co-host0:58

    And I guess the thinking is perhaps he tried to repeat that in Iran with, so far, varying degrees of success.

  8. Joe Weisenthal· Host1:05

    Yeah, maybe no success at all.

  9. Tracy Alloway· Co-host1:07

    [laughs] Yes, I'm, I'm being facetious.

  10. Joe Weisenthal· Host1:09

    You're perhaps generous, but, like, this idea that it's like, okay, remove Maduro, and here is someone who was part of the government. It's like, okay, you know what? We're gonna be friends with the Americans now. We're gonna play ball. Certainly don't want to... You know, the next in charge didn't want to end up with the same person. You know, he didn't want to end up in the same position. I almost Freudian slipped and said-

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