In Moscow's Shadows 252: All the Pieces of Peace in Ukraine
6/14/202642 min
Peace gets talked about as if it is a destination we can spot from the front line, but the closer we look, the more it feels like a mirage. Ukraine’s mid-range strikes and tactical gains tempt commentators into declaring a decisive shift, and then into assuming peace is near. Real progress matters, but overconfident stories can set the public up for disappointment and push policymakers towards shortcuts.
I take an article by British ex-diplomat Ian Proud on what he thinks a peace would require - I agree with many of his diagnoses, but not with a lot of his prescriptions - as a starting point to explore the different moving parts within any peace process. I don't end up feeling especially optimistic, although Russia could still just stop fighting at any time.
The Proud article, by the way, is here: https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-russia-europe-talks/
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsMark Galeotti· Host0:00
Is it Groundhog Day? Because once again, on the one hand, we are having to talk about what it would take to get peace in Ukraine, and on the other hand, we are doing so with a clear sense that at present it doesn't seem, unfortunately, at all imminent. [patriotic music] [singing] Hello, I'm Mark Galeotti, and welcome to My View of Russia: In Moscow's Shadows. This podcast of varying length, frequency, and format, yet always reassuringly low production values, is supported by generous and perspicacious patrons like you, and also by the crisis exercise software company, Conductor. So I'm recording this on Sunday the 14th of June, and if you are a paying patron and listening today, last call tonight for the next, uh, sort of quarterly or so patrons only questions and answer episode. And speaking of patrons, I have just been taken to task in the nicest possible way. Apparently, I should be begging you not just to subscribe, but also to review this