How to win a penalty shootout (with game theory)
7/3/202618 min
Lionel Messi is arguably the greatest soccer scorer of all time. But when it comes to penalty kicks, Messi is merely average. Why? Maybe the answer involves game theory.
According to game theory, there’s an optimal strategy for taking penalty kicks. This strategy involves an idea that was once somewhat controversial in economics — that is, until economists started studying soccer players in real life.
On today's show, we kick it over to the hosts of the Soccernomics podcast to explain how game theory has changed soccer, and how soccer has changed game theory.
Watch the penalty shootout between Manchester United and Chelsea in the Champions League final in 2008.
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This episode of Planet Money was produced by Emma Peaslee with help from James Sneed. It was edited by Jess Jiang. It was fact checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Annlie Huang. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.
The Soccernomics episode was originally hosted by Ashish Malhotra, Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski and sound designed by Alex Roldan.
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsSpeaker 10:00
This message comes from Edward Jones, where they believe rich means opening yourself to new possibilities. That's why your dedicated financial advisor meets you where you are, helping you move forward with confidence. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC.
Ashish Malhotra· Soundbite0:17
This is Planet Money from NPR.
Geoff Guo· Host0:21
Last week, one of the best soccer players of all time did something kind of shocking. Lionel Messi missed a penalty kick. The top World Cup scorer of all time is actually a slightly below average penalty kicker. He's in the running for missing the most penalties of any player in World Cup history. Somehow, Messi is worse at scoring when he's just 12 yards from the goal with no one but the goalie between him and the back of the net. And that might be because there's another skill at play when it comes to penalty kicks. It's not just about how good you are at kicking the ball. It's about something we here at Planet Money love, game theory. Hello, and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Geoff Kuo. The use of game theory in soccer penalties might be one of the most interesting applications of economic theory, like, ever. Today on the show, we hear from the folks at the Soccernomics podcast about the art and strategy of the penalty kick. In a World Cup year where there might be more games going to penalties than ever before, we're gonna learn how game theory has changed