Bringing the House down: our American midterms model
4/23/202626 min
We examine what our forecast model predicts so far—and consider what might change its confident prediction for one house of Congress and toss-up call for the other. Our correspondent sits down with Steve Reich, a pioneering classical composer who is nearing his 90th birthday. And the surprising reason why firstborns tend to have more-successful lives.
Additional music courtesy of Steve Reich (Nonesuch Records), Erik Hall (Western Vinyl)
Guests and host:
- Dan Rosenheck, data editor
- Jon Fasman, senior culture correspondent
- Ainslie Johnstone, data journalist
- Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”
Topics covered:
- American elections, Congress, polling, gerrymandering
- Steve Reich, contemporary classical music
- birth order, statistics
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsJason Palmer· Host0:00
[upbeat music] The Economist. [upbeat music] Hello, and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm your host, Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. [upbeat music] Describing Steve Reich as a contemporary classical composer just leaves too much unsaid. He's been pioneering a singular kind of classical music since the 1960s, and as his 90th birthday approaches, our correspondent sits down with him. [upbeat music] And middle children, youngest children, cover your ears. We dig into the data that suggests why it is that statistically eldest siblings do better in life. [upbeat music] First up, though. [upbeat music] Here are some things you've been able to count on in American midterm elections since long before Donald Trump started to sow doubt in the whole process. One, attempts will be made to fiddle the maps laying out which district a particular place falls into. By convention, this is redistricting when it isn't obviously unfair and gerrymandering