Billionaire Investor on the Data Center Boom and Oil's Breaking Point
5/10/202635 min
In this week's episode of WSJ’s Take On the Week, co-hosts Miriam Gottfried and Telis Demos discuss what’s beyond the surge in semiconductor companies like Broadcom and Micron. They examine economist Ed Yardeni’s "Buzz Lightyear theory"—which says that demand for compute power will increase to infinity and beyond—that has led to S&P 500 earnings growth expectations surpassing the 2000 tech bubble peak. Plus, they analyze the impact of the fatal hantavirus outbreak on cruise-line stocks. After the break, billionaire philanthropist and former energy trader John Arnold joins Miriam and Telis at a live taping of the show at the WSJ’s Future of Everything event. Arnold offers an analysis of how the U.S.-Iran conflict is shaping oil markets and discusses the factors preventing crude oil from reaching initial forecasts of $150 to $200 a barrel. He details how the Iran war underscores America's energy-security strengths, which should prompt hyperscalers to prioritize the U.S. for data-center expansion over Middle Eastern alternatives. Finally, he talks about a new focus of Arnold Ventures—the call for guardrails on prediction markets and sports betting—arguing that gambling regulation should remain under state jurisdiction rather than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This is WSJ’s Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, Heard on the Street’s banking and money columnist, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ’s investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We’d love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Further Reading: Memory Makers Are the Hottest Thing in Tech. Are They Making Too Much Money? Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets The 33-Day ‘Atlantic Odyssey’ That Turned Into a Hantavirus Nightmare U.S. Regulator Sues New York State for Prediction Markets Crackdown For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ’s Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ’s Live Markets blog. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Follow Miriam Gottfried here and Telis Demos here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsMiriam Gottfried· Host0:00
Sponsored by Wellington Management, pioneering investment strategies for nearly 100 years. Visit wellington.com/usawealth. [upbeat music] Hi, Talis.
Telis Demos· Host0:09
Hi, Miriam.
Miriam Gottfried· Host0:10
So last week we had a great conversation with Josh Brown about his framework for thinking about the market, the HALO companies.
Telis Demos· Host0:17
Heavy asset, low obsolescence.
Miriam Gottfried· Host0:19
That's right. You got- Did I read that correctly? You got it right.
Telis Demos· Host0:21
Okay.
Miriam Gottfried· Host0:21
You got it right. And that, you know, got us into talking about a sector of the market that's been really hot, which is semiconductors, because that's one of the sectors that Josh considers to be HALO. And it's interesting because it's a way of thinking about how to power the AI revolution, but not through the making of an LLM, but rather through the physical infrastructure needed for AI.
Telis Demos· Host0:47
Well, we got some reader, uh, listener, au- audience, audience feedback about our episode and, and, and one person said, "Oh, you know, hearing Josh talk about HALO kind of reminds me of the atoms versus bits kind of conversation framework." Atoms meaning things, right? So oil is atoms. Bits being information, right?
Miriam Gottfried· Host1:07
Right.
Telis Demos· Host1:07
You know, something stored on a disk somewhere. Uh, but semiconductors, I guess, kind of bridge that a little bit because obviously they are the facilitators of bits moving around- Right ... but are, you know, quite atom heavy [laughs] That's right ... in terms of, like, you know, we're building data centers, they need to be filled with, with chips.
Miriam Gottfried· Host1:25
Yeah, and these semiconductor stocks have all surged. They've done incredibly well so far this