Beware the power of prediction | Carissa Véliz
4/23/202615 min
What do the story of Oedipus and your insurance premiums have in common? They are both driven by self-fulfilling prophecies. Philosopher and TED Fellow Carissa Véliz traces the hidden power of prediction, from Roman emperors who banned prophets to the AI algorithms quietly making decisions about your life right now. We tend to associate predictions with knowledge, she says, but they're actually attempts to grab power. So the next time someone tells you a specific outcome is inevitable, remember: they aren't describing the future — they're selling it.
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First 90 secondsElise Hu· Host0:00
[curious electronic music] You're listening to TED Talks Daily, where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hu. What do the story of Oedipus and your insurance premiums have in common? More than you'd think. They're both driven by self-fulfilling prophecies.
Carissa Véliz· Guest0:20
Even though we tend to associate prediction with knowledge, I'd like to invite you to consider the possibility that most of the predictions that you encounter in an everyday setting are closer to the realm of power than that of knowledge. Predictions are often power plays in disguise. They justify value-laden decisions under the pretense of facts.
Elise Hu· Host0:42
That's philosopher, AI ethicist, and TED Fellow Carissa Véliz. In her talk, she traces the hidden power of prediction from kings who banned or even killed prophets to AI algorithms quietly making decisions about your life right now.
Carissa Véliz· Guest0:59
Better understanding prediction matters more than ever because we're relying on forecasting more than ever with AI. And based on how we talk about prediction, we're being much too naive about it. "But AI is science," you might think. "It's cutting-edge technology." Well, depends on the kind of AI and how we use it.
Elise Hu· Host1:18
Her message? The next time someone tells you a specific outcome is inevitable, remember they aren't necessarily describing the future. They might be selling it instead. That's coming