Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets
6/24/202623 min
Prediction markets aren’t new. Election betting was common until the 1940s, then mysteriously faded away.
There was an entire political era when party bosses were expected to conspicuously gamble on their candidates (even if they secretly hedged).
And in the 1980s, a few economists designed an election market that beat out election polling 74 percent of the time.
Today, we’re running an excerpt from our friends at Throughline, NPR’s excellent history podcast. Subscribe right now if you don’t already. And, listen to their extended version of the episode to hear about the early markets for betting on terrorism and military uses of prediction markets.
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Today's episode was produced for Planet Money by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler, edited by Alex Goldmark, and engineered by Maggie Luthar. The original Throughline episode was produced by Rund Abdelfatah, Casey Miner, Cristina Kim, Devin Katayama, Sarah Wyman, Julia Redpath, and Kyana Moghadam.
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First 90 secondsSpeaker 10:00
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Erica Beras· Host0:16
Hey, guys. We have an episode for you. We always do, but first, we have a question.
Kenny Malone· Host0:22
A lot has happened in the past five or so years, and we wanna know how you all are holding up. Did you make any big decisions that are maybe backfiring now? Like, did you move to Montana during the pandemic, and now your work wants you back in the office in Seattle? What's your plan?
Erica Beras· Host0:40
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Erica Beras· Host1:02
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Kenny Malone· Host1:17
That email, planetmoney@npr.org. All right, Erica, you have a show to start.
Erica Beras· Host1:22
This is Planet Money from NPR. Recently, I heard a story that