‘ABJECT HUMILIATION - WORSE THAN OBAMA DEAL’ - why Trump can’t get out of Iran war
6/11/202632 min
While Washington insists pressure is working and Tehran claims resilience; attacks have continued, oil markets are moving, and ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz despite repeated warnings of disruption.
In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban unpack why oil prices haven’t exploded, whether Iran is losing one of its most powerful bargaining chips, and what the movement of ships in the Gulf tells us about what could happen next.
And what does the resignation of UK Defence Secretary John Healey tell us about how the UK is preparing for a more unstable world?
They’re joined by Yael Selfin, Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and Chief Economist at KPMG, to ask whether markets are underestimating the risks - and what this could mean for fuel prices, inflation and the wider economy.
Clips
Transcript preview
First 90 secondsMatt Frei· Host0:00
One whopping indicator has come our way in the form of this, the resignation letter of one John Healey, the Defense Secretary, on a crucial day. This couldn't be worse for the already embattled prime minister.
Mark Urban· Host0:12
This is, uh, as they used to say on Fleet Street, a marmalade dropper. It's extraordinary that he's finally been, uh, brought to this extreme of resignation.
Matt Frei· Host0:20
Let's move on to Iran, the Strait of Hormuz.
Mark Urban· Host0:23
Maybe Trump can live with this, just sort of burbling on. I mean, certainly that's a better alternative for him than a deal which looks like abject humiliation and worse than the Obama nuclear deal.
Matt Frei· Host0:34
Hello, and welcome to the Forecast Indicators. I'm Matt Frei.
Mark Urban· Host0:41
And I'm Mark Urban, and this is the podcast where we look at the signals that analysts watch most closely, separating the wheat from the chaff, and finding the telltale signs that suggest imminent and significant change.
Matt Frei· Host0:53
Well, we were gonna talk about Iran today, and we will continue to talk about Iran and whether the ceasefire is holding, what the US is up to in a bit. But first, one whopping indicator has come our way in the form of this, the resignation letter of one John Healey, the Defense Secretary, on a crucial day. This couldn't be worse in terms of timing, you know, both for defense spending, but also for the already embattled Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Mark, how important is this? And give us some extracts.
Mark Urban· Host1:23
Yeah, I mean, this is, uh, as they used to say on Fleet Street, a marmalade dropper, I think. A, a pretty extraordinary moment from,