A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans
5/31/20261 hr 20 min
Benedict Evans is an independent analyst and former partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he spent years as their in-house “thinker” tracking the most important technology trends. For the past six years, he’s been publishing deeply researched presentations on where tech is heading, most recently focused on AI’s transformation of the economy. His work is read by founders, investors, and operators trying to make sense of a noisy field. His most controversial opinion: AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile—and only as big.
In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:
1. Why we’re in “1997” for AI—early, exciting, and deeply uncertain about what comes next
2. Where value will actually accrue in the AI stack
3. The anti-AI backlash, and where it may lead
4. The surprising boom in consulting and professional services at AI companies
5. Why distribution is becoming the ultimate moat as software gets easier to build
6. Why the right question about your job isn’t “What percent can AI do?” but “Is this a task or a job?”
7. Why things will probably be okay—and what you need to do to prepare
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Episode transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/a-rational-conversation-on-where
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Archive of all Lenny's Podcast transcripts: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0
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Where to find Benedict Evans:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans
• Newsletter: https://www.ben-evans.com/newsletter
• Website: https://www.ben-evans.com
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Where to find Lenny:
• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com
• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/
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In this episode, we cover:
(00:00) Introduction to Benedict Evans
(02:19) What people aren’t pricing in about AI’s impact
(06:24) Why we’re in the 1997 moment of AI
(09:44) The unexpected boom in professional services and consultants
(17:44) Why distribution is becoming the ultimate moat
(23:17) The coming job transformation: what’s real vs. panic
(27:33) Why AGI definitions keep shifting
(38:11) Where value will accrue: models vs. applications
(42:55) Distribution wars: Google, Meta, Apple, and OpenAI
(48:12) The anti-AI sentiment and backlash
(53:11) How to raise kids in an AI future
(58:27) What jobs to steer toward or away from
(59:20) The question nobody’s asking about AI
(1:06:25) How to be successful in this coming future
(1:08:43) AI corner
(1:11:43) Lightning round
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Referenced: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/a-rational-conversation-on-where
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Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.
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Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.
To hear more, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com
Clips
Transcript preview
First 90 secondsBenedict Evans· Guest0:00
My most controversial opinion is that I think that AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile, and only as big a deal as the internet or mobile.
Lenny Rachitsky· Host0:06
What's your gist on the coming jobpocalypse?
Benedict Evans· Guest0:09
Every time we have a new technology, it automates away a bunch of jobs, and then that automation unlocks a bunch of new jobs. And you don't know the new job because it doesn't exist yet. We've had that process over and over again.
Lenny Rachitsky· Host0:17
Even just looking at the most advanced AI companies, uh, Anthropic, OpenAI, everyone's increasing headcount.
Benedict Evans· Guest0:22
You talk to these doomers on Twitter, and they would act like every big company is going to buy ChatGPT tomorrow, and then in two weeks' time they'll fire all their staff. These people are morons. You can't predict which things are going to be exposed. You can't look at a senior partner at a law firm and say, "Well, 17% of their work could be automated." This is horseshit.
Lenny Rachitsky· Host0:40
I'm curious if you're following the anti-AI sentiment.
Benedict Evans· Guest0:43
It's a big, fuzzy mess. Yes, this will change a bunch of stuff, and we'll need to worry about it, but that's kind of a constant. We've always had that.
Lenny Rachitsky· Host0:50
What would be a couple things you recommend people do to be more successful in this future?
Benedict Evans· Guest0:56
Don't stick your head in the sand and say, "I hate all of this stuff." That gives you a great feeling of moral superiority, and you can go on Bluesky and shout at everybody about how evil AI is. Like, great. I'm happy for you, but that's not gonna help. What helps is you diving into this and coming out understanding what you can do with it.
Lenny Rachitsky· Host1:13
Today my guest is Benedict Evans. Benedict was a longtime partner at a16z as their in-house analyst and resident thinker. Before that, he was a longtime equity researcher. And for the past six years, he's been an independent analyst, tracking the most important tech