A HUGE RB Pivot - The Data Show (What Are The Odds) | Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast Ep. 831
5/14/202657 min
Google sheets for data: RBs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1idJmPno8MCI-WUdCG0f5wXAwngaztZj7V0xTiNI1HJY/edit?usp=sharing QBs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bJyn6KrrOktHVAFI90buniA3G8iGmogqD9Fv6WFSwwI/edit?usp=sharing WRs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qwxHm7lMHQ7kZecVZUuWQd1AhaXoKzEUQaqYpQf2tfw/edit?usp=sharing TEs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FSwzXR62EG_CyBg77BaS8BV0iBLd7ZUoA7Ll8eqEtXE/edit?usp=sharing The Dynasty Nerds crew is back with their annual “repeat rate” deep dive, breaking down how often elite fantasy finishes actually repeat year to year and what that means for building dynasty rosters. Rich Dotson, Matt O'Hara, and Garret Price walk through the biggest shifts in the data, with the running back position showing the most meaningful change. Listen to This Episode: Apple Podcasts Spotify YouTube The headline is the pivot at RB. Historically, most top 12 RB seasons were one and done, but now only 43.75% of RB1 seasons are single year hits, meaning 56% plus repeat. Even wilder, about 40.6% of RB1 seasons come from backs who eventually log three or more RB1 years. That shift strengthens the case for locking in young cornerstone backs like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, who already have three RB1 seasons in three years, while Kyren Williams keeps beating the “other shoe” narrative by repeating without elite peak finishes. At QB, Josh Allen is in historic territory with seven top six seasons in eight years, and a massive top three hit rate. The show also notes how rare four top six seasons are, which keeps Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott in elite company even when real life value and fantasy value diverge. Start Using the Film Room Today! FFPC: New Users: Use promo code NERDS for $25 off your first FFPC Orphan Team! 00:00 Start 03:33 A Pivot in the RB Data 25:37 Top QB Hit Rates 38:25 FFPC 39:40 Top WR Hit Rates 48:40 Top TE Hit Rates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Transcript preview
First 90 secondsSpeaker 00:00
Ready, set, hut hut. [upbeat music] Welcome to the Dynasty Nerds Fantasy Football Podcast [grunting] where we discuss dynasty strategy, rankings, and all things NFL [grunting]. So get ready to geek out on fantasy football [grunting] with your host, Rich Dotson.
Rich Dotson· Host0:16
And welcome to the Dynasty Nerd Fantasy Football Podcast. I'm Rich Dotson, he's Matt O'Hara.
Matt O'Hara· Host0:25
Hey, hey.
Rich Dotson· Host0:25
He's Garrett Price.
Garret Price· Host0:26
How's it going?
Rich Dotson· Host0:27
And we are doing our annual what are the odds, the chances, the percentages, the data points that when a player finishes number one, which is top 12 at their position any given year, that they're gonna be a redundant son of a B. They're gonna do it again. They're gonna be a repeat. You like it so much, put it on repeat. The single, let's say.
Garret Price· Host0:49
Another one.
Rich Dotson· Host0:50
Another one. [laughs] So, um- You effin'- [laughs] ...
Matt O'Hara· Host0:55
piece of repeatin' S.
Rich Dotson· Host0:56
[laughs] If you've been listening to the show for a while, we've done this show now for, frick Matt, six, seven years almost?
Garret Price· Host1:04
I think just the two of you did the first one, and that was back- Yeah.
Rich Dotson· Host1:07
Ooh, we took a break.
Garret Price· Host1:07
Yeah, you guys did the first one back in, like, I wanna say, like, 2020 range.
Matt O'Hara· Host1:12
Somewhere right around there, sure.
Garret Price· Host1:13
And then we took a year off from it, and then I think I picked it back up a year or two later, and now we've been doing it every year since.
Matt O'Hara· Host1:23
Every year since.
Rich Dotson· Host1:23
Yeah, we just kinda- it's like, it's interesting data. It's a good point to hammer back home. Um, and we're kinda also, like, trying to follow the trends.
Matt O'Hara· Host1:29
I was gonna say, it's